By: Socred, B.A., SCMP
It is often said by supposed financial experts that the reason there is so much debt, both public and private, is that we are “living beyond our means”. Their argument is that if we all just “tightened our belts” and consumed a little less, then we would not be in this financial mess. On the surface, this argument seems to make sense. We all know that we have a certain household income and if we spend more than our household income, then we must go into debt in order to do so. If we continue to spend more than we earn, eventually the debt will become too large to pay off and we will have to default on our debts.
Does this argument hold true for the economy as a whole? If all agents in the economy balanced their budgets, would we be in a better situation? Let’s explore what it really means to “live beyond our means”, and the possibility of balancing all budgets in an economy.
First we must eliminate money from our analysis, because money is just (or should be) a symbolic representation of the ability to consume and produce. The purpose of any economy is consumption, and this is only limited by our ability to produce. Finance should merely be a mathematical representation of these activities.
Production not meant for consumption is waste. In other words, the purpose of production is not to provide work, but to provide goods and services to consumers with the least amount of effort. This may seem to be common sense, but when we add money back into our analysis, common sense seems to leave most people, including supposed financial experts.
Now, without a doubt, it is possible for any individual agent to “live beyond their means”. What this means in real terms is that someone consumes more than they produce. However, if one individual consumes more than they produce, another must consume less than they produce (you cannot consume what has not been produced). The second agent is engaging in “savings” in real terms. Of course, the second agent would only consume less than he produced if there were some incentive to do so, and this is why the first must pay back the amount of goods and services “borrowed” from the second with “interest”. However, consumer goods only have a limited shelf life. They depreciate over time. Therefore, savings in this form does not exist in the macro-economy because goods and services cannot be “saved” for any length of time in order to be consumed at a later date.
The ability to "live beyond our means" seems to make sense from a micro-economic point of view involving individual economic agents, but from a macro-economic point of view it is completely absurd. Is it possible for an entire economy to “live beyond its means”? Momentarily excluding foreign trade - any economy produces a certain amount of goods and services, let’s call that quantity X. Is it possible for all of the agents in that economy to consume X plus a certain amount more (A)? If the economy produces X, is it possible to consume X+A? Clearly this is impossible! You cannot consume something that does not exist. A has not been produced, so you cannot consume it. For the economy as a whole, it is impossible to “live beyond our means”. Consequently, the “financial experts” advice, which applies to individual economic agents, does not apply to the economy as a whole. If we all consumed less, this would mean that more and more production would be waste, because consumer goods have a limited shelf life, and cannot be saved in order to be consumed at a later date.
Hold on, some will argue, you have exluded foreign trade from your analysis. With foreign trade, it is possible for one country “to live beyond its means” by importing more than it exports in goods and services. So it is possible for individual nations to “live beyond their means”. This is true. However, all countries are attempting to pursue a favorable balance of trade simultaneously. A favorable balance of trade means that a country wants to export more than they import. In real terms, this means that all countries are trying to give more goods and services away to other countries than they receive from those countries in return. From a macro-economic perspective, the country that exports more than it imports engages in “savings”, and the country that imports more than it exports is “living beyond its means”. Nations are individual economic agents in this analysis, and the macro-economy is the world economy. As we discussed previously, this type of savings is not real, because consumer goods have a very limited shelf life. Further, it is impossible for all countries in the world to consume less than they produce without a huge amount of waste. Thus, we need to understand why all countries pursue a favorable balance of trade.
The main reason why a favorable balance of trade is pursued by all countries is that it leads to economic growth in terms of GDP accounting. China is a prime example of how this policy leads to this type of growth. China had a balance of trade surplus of 14.5 billion dollars in November of 2011, and its economic growth was 9.1% in terms of year over year increases in GDP. Exports represent almost 40% of their GDP, yet the Chinese people themselves have a GDP per capita of less than $6,000 per annum in U.S. dollars. Their balance of trade surplus represents approximately 3% of their GDP. (source: trading economics). In other words, the Chinese live in relative poverty in order to give away 3% of the goods and services they produce so that they can pursue a policy of a favorable balance of trade in order to have economic growth. What causes this seeming paradox? Why would the Chinese give away 3% of their GDP to other nations while their citizens live in poverty?
This paradox is the result of confusion in regards to the purpose of the economy. The real purpose of the economy should be to provide goods and services to consumers. It does not exist to provide employment. It is true that a certain amount of employment is necessary to provide goods and services, but the less amount of employment required to provide goods and services, the better off we are. This is the whole purpose of science and technology. Advances in technology reduce the amount of labour necessary to produce goods and services. If we adhere to the belief that the economy exists to provide employment, then we will account for a favourable balance of trade as an increase in prosperity because it provides employment to those who are producing the goods and services. This is exactly how GDP accounting accounts for a favourable balance of trade. In other words, the purpose of an economy, according to the way we account for economic prosperity currently (GDP accounting), is to provide employment .
There is nothing wrong with foreign trade so long as the purpose of that trade is to give one country something in return for something else. However, there is a problem with foreign trade when the objective is to give away more than you receive back. This policy of a favourable balance of trade inevitably leads to a trade war between nations, which often results in a real war. War is the ultimate favorable balance of trade in that a country “dumps” bombs and bullets on another country at no cost to the other country with the intended purpose of not receiving any bombs or bullets in return. In fact, if war was accounted as an “export”, which it truly is, the United States would not be running as large of trade deficits in times of war. This is why the US economy is so dependent on war for its proper functioning. A large amount of propaganda in the United States is aimed at creating enemies so that the country can dump large amounts of exports on the enemy. This activity leads to employment and allows for economic growth.
These policies are insane in the truest sense of the word because they are all linked to confusion in regards to the true purpose of an economy. This policy has at its basis a philosophy which is non-congruent with reality. All policy derives from philosophy. Work is a bye-product of an economic system, not an ends in and of itself. Because money is created as a debt and prices increase faster than incomes, the result is ever increasing debt. This increase in debt does not mean that we are “living beyond our means”, which in macro-economic terms is a complete fallacy. It is due to a misguided philosophy that is wreaking havoc on our world’s economies. There is a statement in the bible that “if any will not work, neither should he eat” (Thessalonians 3:10). This was certainly true at the time and place it was written, but that does not mean that this is a universal truth that holds for all time and all places. Just as Jesus said, “go sell what thou hast, and give it to the poor” (Matthew 19:21), he did not mean that everyone has to sell all they have and give it to the poor. This statement was true for the intended recipient, who valued his material possessions above all else. It was not meant as a universal truth to applicable to everyone.
Technology is replacing labour in the production. As such, employment is becoming an ever decreasing factor of production. This fact is responsible for an accounting flaw, which in turn makes it impossible to balance all budgets within an economy simultaneously. In a letter to the Social Credit Premier of Alberta, Douglas wrote:
"This seems to be a suitable occasion on which to emphasise the proposition that a Balanced Budget is quite inconsistent with the use of Social Credit (i.e., Real Credit – the ability to deliver goods and services 'as, when and where required') in the modern world, and is simply a statement in accounting figures that the progress of the country is stationary, i.e., that it consumes exactly what it produces, including capital assets. The result of the acceptance of this proposition is that all capital appreciation becomes quite automatically the property of those who create and issue of money [i.e., the banking system] and the necessary unbalancing of the Budget is covered by Debts."
In other words, a policy of attempting to balance all budgets in an economy simultaneously implicitly assumes that technological progress is non-existent. It assumes that the economy consumes exactly what it produces, including its capital assets (factories, machinery, etc..). However, we know that capital assets can last for years, so they are not consumed at the same rate as consumer goods. As a result, all capital appreciation (increases in capital minus depreciation of capital) becomes the property of those who issue money (the banking system) due to the fact that they are the only ones who can monetize the use of that capital. Since the banking system only issues money as a debt, capital appreciation and the monetization of its use results in ever increasing debt. This means that as we advance technologically, we are forced into ever increasing debt. It is technological advances and the displacement of labour in production which causes increasing debt loads, not "living beyond our means".
How do we solve this dilemma?
Douglas demonstrated in his A+B theorem that prices increase faster than incomes as a result of technological progress and the replacement of labour by capital in production. If we give people the necessary purchasing power to buy back all of production through a compensated price mechanism and a national dividend given to all, then debts will not increase over time. Further, the ability for consumers to obtain purchasing power without employment will end the pursuit of a policy of full employment. This will stop the insane practices of war and a favourable balance of trade in order to make the economy function properly. Increasing debt is not a result of “living beyond our means”, but the result of technological progress and the inability to balance all budgets in an economy simultaneously with this parametric shift. The Anti-Christian philosophy of Salvation through work perceives technology as something that enables us to do more work (and as consequence, producing ever increasing goods and services, and falling further and further into debt). The Christian philosophy of Grace enables technology to become a positive factor for progress because as physical labour is replaced by machines, people's purchasing power can be increased without having to do more work or go into every increasing debt. Only by increasing our purchasing power in accordance with capital appreciation, can technological progress become evidence of God’s grace. God’s grace is imperative to our salvation.
"The most dangerous man at the present time, said Major Douglas in answer to another question, was the man who wanted to get everyone back to work, for he perverts means into ends. This is leading straight to the next war - which will provide plenty of work for everyone."(Tragedy of Human Effort)
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9 comments:
Dear Socred - B.A.
Sorry for communicating with you this way, but I have read your excellent blog and note you obviously have co-operated with veteran social creditor Wally Klinck.
Two questions, if I may:
1. In social credit literature we are told banks do not lend savings from depositors. Therefore, when I place money in to my bank savings account, what happens to this money? (Orthodoxy tells us that banks lend such savings to business firms etc to help 'grow the economy'.)
2. You write that technology is replacing human labour. Why is it there is a constant call by business leaders for more human labour? There are always complaints about skills shortages and labour shortages throughout English speaking Western world countries. So, what is going on?
Eagerly awaiting your reply. Many thanks.
I do apologise for communicating through a comments page, but I would like to ask you two questions, please:
1. In Social Credit literature we are told money deposited in a bank savings account is not lend by that bank. So what happens to the money deposited in a bank savings account/ Orthodox economists tell us such money is lend to business firms etc to enable industrial expansion and thus 'grow' the economy.
2. You write that technology is replacing human labour. Yet business leaders make constant complaints of skills shortages and human labour shortages. There is a constant demand for human labour. Why? What's going on?
Thank you
Hi:
Sorry for the delayed response. I did not check the comments for a few days now. I had to moderate comments because if you don't, you get too much spam posted on the comments.
Money deposited in a bank is not lent to anyone else. That would be illegal. I'm not sure what you mean by "what happens to money deposited at a bank". Banks cannot lend your deposit to someone else. Ask yourself this question, when was the last time your bank decreased your deposit because they took the money from that account to lend it to someone else? Every loan creates a corresponding deposit. That is how money is created.
The reason why there is a constant call for labour, even though technology is replacing labour in production, is that all income is tied to wages, salaries and dividends. And of those three, the first two are the primary source of income. In other words, people have to come up with more creative ways to "create work" in order to secure an income. Social Crediters refer to this phenomenon as "economic sabotage". There is an essay on this subject on my blog.
http://social-credit.blogspot.com/2008/12/economic-sabotage_05.html
Now it is my turn to apologise for a much delayed response to your answers!
You say you're not sure what I mean by "what happens to money deposited at a bank". What I am getting at is this: We are told by politicians and economists that as an individual we must save as much money as possible for our retirement and to buy a house etc. These savings are generally placed in a bank deposit account. Once there, the experts tell us this money so saved is then redistributed by the banks into investments; that is, invested in to the economy i.e. loaned to business people to expand their activities or to home lenders to build a house which employs builders etc. The flow on effect is to "grow" the economy. But social credit tells us the money you transfer into your bank savings account is not loaned out to others. Therefore, I was trying to understand what happens to the money we 'save' at any commercial bank. If it is not loaned to others, is it, for example, used as a reserve to enable a bank to borrow from other banks including a central bank?
In respect of business people and their constant demand for(usually low cost) labour. Is this also because human labour is a cheaper option than the employment of labour saving technology? I ask this because the West is importing thirld world labour i.e. Mexicans to work farms in America, Asians to work many service industries (builders, old age carers etc)in Australia, Britain imports medical doctors and nurses from, say, Africa and so on. "We need more workers" is the constant catch-cry from business people and economists.
If the primary reason for the West to have a large pool of labour for an ever increasing number of jobs - especially in Australia and Canada(farmwork and mining) centres on aforementioned labour being a cheaper option than technology, does this not bring into play the Douglas A + B theorem? i.e. the reason for ever increasing financial costs etc. Thus it is cheaper and more flexible to employ human labour than modern technology. Plus, of course, this is linked to the problem of excessive industrial production (the understanding of which we once again go back to the A + B theorem). Sorry for the very long comments. I'm just trying to pin down a few things.
Hi again,
No worries about the delayed response. I don't check the comments every day either.
In regards to bank deposits, most economists should recognize the fact that banks create deposits. In the introductory economics course I took in university, the text states:
"In the normal course of their operations, banks create money" (Blomqvist, Wonnacott, and Wonnacott, "Economics First Canadian Edition"pge. 201)
Also, the Bank of Canada states in a backgrounder article about the Bank:
"Commercial banks and other financial institutions provide the greater part of assets used as money through loans made to individuals and businesses. In that sense, financial institutions are creating money. " (Bank of Canada, "Bank in Brief")
Many economists are confused about the role of "savings" in an economy. You will actually hear them state that savings increase deposits, which is ridiculous. Unless someone hoards their money under a mattress, or they have some cash in a register as a float, or in their wallet, money is kept in a bank account. Even when people spend money (not save it)that money is simply transferred from one account to another.
Loans create deposits and repayment of loans destroy deposits. This process has nothing to do with savings.
Banks do not take someone's deposit, and lend it to someone else. That would be illegal. A loan creates both an asset and a liability for the bank. That is how they "balance" on a balance sheet. The loan is recorded as an asset to the bank, and the deposit that the loan creates is recorded as a liability.
This is a very good site about the process of money creation and fraction reserve banking:
http://wfhummel.net/index.html#2
There are many reasons why labour costs are cheaper than capital in developed countries. Probably too many to go into detail on a comments page. But I'll start with one.
Capital is paid for at the time it's built, and once again as accountants depreciate it over time via depreciation expenses. These capital charges, which really represent past consumption, would be eliminated in a Social Credit price rebate mechanism.
In other words, prices in our current system are a false reflection of reality. Douglas demonstrated that the real cost of production is consumption over an equivalent period of time, and that financial costs, which include past consumption costs (capital cost), are greater than real costs of production.
If you want a more detailed response, please read the article "Costs and Time" which is posted on my blog.
Back again.
Thank you for the answers above to my questions.
But just to clarify one little thing. When, for example, I take my $100 into a bank and deposit that amount in my savings account, that $100 stays there as a bank record? The bank does not use it as a "reserve" to borrow money from the international money markets or central bank?
I have been through social credit writings etc on the internet (among other reference sources)and note a fair bit of opposition to the Douglas analysis. He seems to have hit a raw nerve.
One Swedish chap involved in establishing interest-free savings-loans was dismissive of the A+B theorem. One internet "example" of the theorem stated: 'Businesses have different type of costs. One is payment to individuals (i.e. wages, salaries, dividends). This part we call A. Another part is interst, amortizations, payments for raw material and goods and services from subcontractors. This part we call B. A business must charge A+B for what it sells, but only A generates purchasing power.' In response, the Swedish chap wrote: "This is not true. The money business X pays to businesses Y,Z etc generates purchasing power to these businesses." In other words, the Swedish commentator supports the counterargument that B payments tranforms into A payments.
Another website attacked social credit by citing a book authored by an American christian who apparently proved social credit is socialism and originated among occult believers in the early 20th century.
How does one deal with such opposition and, I suspect, misrepresentation of C H Douglas?
Finally, I must ask you about the China syndrome. Where I write, we are told China will save us all. Indeed, the Chinese economy will save the entire world. China is where there is unlimited financial prosperity; China has an economic model which actually works etc etc. Would the Douglas analysis apply to China? (A+B theorem etc) Or will China operate differently to the West, and thus not drown in debt and end up with a huge gulf between the 'haves' and the 'have-nots'?
My apology for this long comment.
Hi again:
When you deposit $100 into a bank, that is a liability to a bank. However, if you deposit $100 cash, that cash forms part of a bank's reserves, and can be used to create further loans (banks profit from interest on loans). If you take a cheque and deposit it in a bank (assuming that the person who issued the cheque had an account at the other bank), then the bank you deposited the cheque with will demand reserves (ie. cash or other reserves) from the bank that issued the cheque.
I know it sounds a little complicated, and at times it can be. The Central Bank is the "bankers' bank". They create cash and coin. These form part of commercial banks' reserves. Under a fractional reserve banking system, banks only hold a fraction of their deposits as reserves. In Canada, it's about 3%. In other words, if everyone in Canada went to their bank and tried to get cash for their deposit, the banks would only have 3% of it. If you google the term "deposit expansion" you will find a rudimentary explanation of the process by which banks create money.
The important thing to remember is that every loan creates a deposit (money), and every repayment of a loan destroys a deposit (money). That is how money is created and destroyed. Banks create deposits, they do not "lend" them, in the ordinary sense of the word.
You should ask your Swedish commentator if he understands the difference between revenues and income. Payments to other firms are that other firm's revenues, but only a fraction of those revenues exist as income to individuals. Most of those revenues will be used to repay bank loans, or replace working capital. They do not exist as income.
Gary North's book is filled with what is known as "the strawman fallacy". He presents something that is not Social Credit, and then goes about attacking it. Gary North would not know Social Credit if it hit him in the face. He is an advocate of Austrian Economics and the gold standard. These people have a poor understanding of money which is comprised mostly of bank credit. You deal with misrepresentations of Social Credit by pointing out that they are misrepresentations.
China is not going to be a saviour to anyone. In fact, China is a prime example of how countries are forced to export more than they import in order to make their economies function properly. This is a corollary of the A+B theorem.
I hope I answered your questions.
Take care.
Thank you for your answers to my questions. Very much appreciated.
I have read books by C H Douglas and material from other social crediters, including yourself. However, I find that one needs more detailed technical information as to the workings of the money system i.e. re the use of bank savings and information on the drive to export just about everything. People come back at you with "how do we pay for the importation of a Mercedes Benz motor car?" and such like. We are also told, debt is not really a problem. But as Douglas made clear, debt does represent a problem - with a very flawed accounting system.
Anyhow, once again, many thanks. I had better finish and stop pestering you with so many questions. (Even though I would love to know from social crediters, "where to now?" for the Douglas analysis and social credit - as the central bankers have pumped out vast amounts of new credit to keep "our" highly centralised economic system going for a while yet. And besides, the average person just doesn't want to know - they have a mortgage, a job, prosperity; they accept the system as it is.)
Hi:
You certainly aren't pestering me. I just wish that I could respond to you more fully.
You might want to become a member of this Social Credit discussion group.
http://groups.google.com/group/socialcredit/about
I'm not sure why you think savings has anything to do with deposits, or exports and imports?
If a country has a current account surplus (exports > imports), then it must have a capital account deficit.
"A surplus in the capital account means money is flowing into the country, but unlike a surplus in the current account, the inbound flows will effectively be borrowings or sales of assets rather than earnings. A deficit in the capital account means money is flowing out the country, but it also suggests the nation is increasing its claims on foreign assets."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_account
Debt is a problem when the debt increases faster than our ability to repay it - which is what happens under current conditions without the Social Credit mechanism to compensate for the accounting flaw discovered in Douglas' A+B theorem.
I think that the "where to now" is using the internet to educate as many people as possible. While most people "don't care", it's not the majority of people we need to reach anyway. The majority just follow along. We need to reach the highly motivated and educated minority, and then open their eyes.
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